CIO Publications

With the French election resulting in a hung parliament, we discuss three possible political scenarios and their investment implications.

After Labour’s victory, the prospect of policy stability and cyclical growth will make UK assets worth a second look. We outline investment implications.

The renewable energy sector is experiencing remarkable growth. However, this rapid expansion faces challenges. In this report, we explain why the renewable energy sector’s trajectory remains positive.

In the second issue of our quarterly publication PERSPECTIVES, we provide an update on our economic and investment outlook for the third quarter of 2024 and beyond.

China announced more measures to support the property sector at a national government meeting on May 17. The stimulus measures come at a time when China’s property sector continues to weaken with price declines and lower transaction volumes.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting last Thursday. Signals from the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) indicate a potential rate cut as early as June 20, however.

The recent positive performance by Chinese equities has been mainly driven by a modest improvement in macroeconomic data.

This CIO Special addresses Spain’s recent positive economic performance, its fiscal balance situation and the prospects for Spanish debt & equity assets.

Italy has weathered recent economic crises, including COVID-19 and the European energy shock, better than expected. In Q4 2023, Italy’s GDP growth was +0.2% QoQ, compared to 0.0% for the Eurozone. For the full year 2023, Italy’s growth was 0.7%, outperforming the Eurozone’s 0.5%.

Singapore’s economic openness creates both challenges and strengths. The external sector is an unavoidable source of risk, the high cost of living is a concern and an ageing population. But, set against this, Singapore has a number of important strengths – a globally-connected economy, business-friendly environment, political system and benefits from its role in ASEAN.

It remains a challenging environment for the German housing market, but rate cuts, economic growth and structural rental market shortages should help the market to bottom out.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Karen Sack, of ORRAA, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for ESG, take a deep dive into the sustainable blue economy.

These form a vital component some systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. We highlight significant developments since our last review and the reasons for them.

China recently released a flurry of Q1 economic data. But while GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, some other activity measures continue to disappoint. So has China’s economy really turned a corner?

Bitcoin is unlikely to assert itself as a widespread medium of exchange but may be on its way to mainstream acceptance as a store of value, although the risks of holding it remain high.

The Swiss National Bank has taken the lead as the first major central bank to cut interest rates amid subsiding inflationary pressures. The move sent a signal that the SNB would protect the economy from the consequences of an excessively strong franc.

The Federal Reserve's March update to its economic projections implied that three 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts remain in store for 2024.

In a landmark event, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and yield curve control, though monetary policies remain accommodative.

Favourable long-term trends for the electric-vehicle market remain intact – but an excess supply of battery metals means the outlook for miners remains clouded.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

The U.K. economy started the new year with moderate growth, and the rebound should give the Bank of England the cover it needs to stick to its wait-and-see approach. That could sustain the British pound's relative strength in the near term.

Wage hikes by some leading manufacturers have set the tone for industry-wide pay rises. Japanese authorities are closely watching industry pay revisions as they expect it to trigger a “virtuous cycle of growth”. However, BoJ Governor Ueda recently played down the state of the Japanese economy, given mixed data signals.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annualised increase of +3.2% year-on-year (YoY), moving higher from last month’s reading. On a month-on-month basis (MoM) Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, remained at +0.4%.

Sustainable food systems (SFS) deliver food security and nutrition in ways that are sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. Transitioning towards sustainable food systems could open up business opportunities worth USD4.5 trillion per year by 2030.

The latest Nonfarm payrolls report delivered higher-than-expected jobs figures for the month of February, with significant downward revisions also seen for the previous two months.

The prospect of an imminent turnaround in interest rates should continue to provide the equity markets with a slight tailwind.

India, the world’s largest democracy, is heading to a national vote, with results expected by the end of May. Almost one billion registered voters will make this the biggest election exercise anywhere, ever.

The empowerment of women in the labour force is important in ways that go beyond the critical matter of social justice. Female financial inclusion and gender equality are “macrocritical” to boosting economic activity.

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) has seen the announcement of a new 2024 growth target and discussion on how a “proactive” fiscal stance and “prudent” monetary policy can help the economy.

In a year that has been claimed to be the busiest in history for political elections, there will be no bigger event in the calendar than the race to be President of the United States, due to be held on November 5th.

Strategic asset allocation for private clients starts with detailed knowledge of an investor’s risk profile, investment horizon, and performance targets, among other considerations.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

For investors, digitisation provides a wide range of investment alternatives, with business activities such as cloud computing, Internet of Things (IoT), digital entertainment, and others showing substantial growth potential.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures will reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to a potential interest-rate cut in the near future.

The U.S. jobs report for January showed the labour market on a stronger footing than forecast. That could mean that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest-rate cuts for longer than had recently been expected.

Consumers are holding up relatively well in the U.S. and Europe, despite a weaker economic environment. This could yield interesting opportunities in the stock market, particularly in the area of discretionary consumption.

A budget focused on strong fiscal consolidation unsurprisingly gave support to fixed income markets.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, but it also softened its language, dropping a warning about the potential for further policy tightening should inflationary pressures re-emerge.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signalled that it is yet to be fully convinced that a rate cut is imminent.

We believe a recovery in Chinese equities is likely in the second half of 2024 as recent stimulus measures gradually take effect.

Compared to the eurozone overall, Greece could experience slightly higher economic growth in the coming years, in particular due to a resurgence in private consumption.

As unanimously expected in advance, the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged at its meeting today.

ESG investment has gone mainstream, with performance implications. Energy transition may point the way to investing in the sustainable economy.

As the BoJ remains dovish, we believe the strong momentum in Japanese equities could continue in the near term.

Adherence to strong convictions in the face of market-moving events can potentially trigger undesirable timing mistakes. Asymmetric strategies can allow more potential upside for a given portfolio risk.

After years of extremely low interest rates, the investment universe is now complete again thanks to the renewed attractiveness of bonds as an asset class – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future in our opinion.

Chinese stock markets fell to multi-year lows after the country’s gross domestic product for the fourth quarter came in below expectations.

Higher-than-expected inflation figures for December will reinforce the Federal Reserve's view that a cautious approach to cutting interest rates will be required in the coming months.

U.S. growth stocks are probably still the way to go for the long term. European and Japanese financials could appeal too, as well as consumer discretionary, industrials and energy.

Be aware that measures to create stability may just create new risks. Rates are still on our radar.

Robust earnings growth is expected globally in 2024. Expectations of higher rates for longer may however put a lid on valuations expansion.

We see these as the key global challenges: how to sustainably utilise and conserve our global resources; how to provide for the global population, and how to develop key technologies to help us all do this.

We see these as the key global challenges: how to sustainably utilise and conserve our global resources; how to provide for the global population, and how to develop key technologies to help us all do this.

We see these as the key global challenges: how to sustainably utilise and conserve our global resources; how to provide for the global population, and how to develop key technologies to help us all do this.

Expect only moderate growth in industrialised economies in 2024. The long-term challenge remains the delivery of investments to enhance economic competitiveness and fight climate change.

Corporate recovery is gaining ground in Japan, but the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its loose monetary policy until it sees meaningful consumption recovery.

Domestic political developments are increasingly shaping foreign policy agendas – and 2024 will be the biggest election year in history.

The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged, and President Lagarde hinted at a more restrictive monetary policy than many financial-market participants had expected.

The Bank of England kept interest rates at the current level. The British pound climbed against its peers after the decision.

Stock markets rallied after the Federal Reserve updated its economic projections to suggest its policy could be more dovish in 2024 than recently forecast.

U.S. inflation edged down in November, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to change course ahead of its last policy decision of the year.

The nonfarm payrolls report for November reflected surprisingly strong jobs growth, leading to lower expectations for future interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The Reserve Bank of India extended its pause on rates as expected, and the markets for government bonds and currencies remained stable.

Despite the economic, geopolitical and climatic challenges the world currently faces, we think that 2024 is likely to be a decent year for investors. In our annual outlook we present our current economic and asset class forecasts for 2024, possible key issues for the coming 12 months and our long-term investment themes.

Moody’s lowered its outlook on China’s government credit ratings from stable to negative on the perceived rising downside risks to the government’s fiscal strength.

The Spanish economy has shown remarkable resilience during 2023, but the latest indicators point to a slowdown. A complex political environment will make it more difficult to address some important challenges.

Recent Chinese economic data have been mixed, with persistent weakness in the property and manufacturing sectors. But a more stable recovery for the country is likely in the coming quarters.

In our new CIO Special – U.S. Election: Running up that hill, we explore the political landscape of the upcoming Presidential elections, key issues that will shape the narrative for the race and its potential impact for investors.

Over the last three years, our annual survey has examined our private, business and institutional clients’ attitudes to the multiple dimensions of ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing. This year, we had 1,759 responses to our survey, double the 849 received in 2022.

Fresh economic data and easing geopolitical tensions point to a potential outperformance for Chinese stocks in the coming quarters.

U.S. inflation fell more than expected in October, lifting stock markets and reducing expectations for an interest-rate rise from the Federal Reserve in December.

Indonesia’s Q3 GDP came in below expectations, but the country remains among the fastest growing Asian economies.

Official U.S. employment data for the month of October pointed to much-needed softening of the labor market and reinforced the Fed’s stance to keep rates steady.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, and predicted that the U.K. government would meet its goal of halving inflation by the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that it is committed to bringing it down to the ideal 2%.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

The Bank of Japan is performing a balancing act between managing domestic growth, reaching its inflation target, and factoring in the depreciation of the yen.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged - and interest rate cuts are not expected in the near future.

The key to sustained long-term returns from ESG investment is effective strategic asset allocation.

Once we looked to technology to make transportation systems cheaper, faster or safer. But “smart mobility” needs to be more sustainable too - and the primary challenge may be social in nature.

China's gross domestic product for the third quarter beat analysts' expectations, but headwinds from the weak property sector and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions persist.

The Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Dr. Philipp Rode of the London School of Economics (LSE) look at how cities can adapt to increasing social, economic and environmental pressures in an ever-more urbanised world.

The recent discussions regarding looser fiscal policy in Italy have exacerbated the volatility on the bond market, leading to a moderate widening of its spreads.

The expansion of the BRICS coalition, with six nations set to join at the start of 2024, will provide the group with increased access to mineral resources and impact global supply chains.

Slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data for September might not be enough to persuade the Fed to act at its next policy meeting, although a further rate hike in November can’t be completely ruled out.

Environmental constraints mean that system changes will be necessary to meet four key human demands –for energy, food, manufacturing and mobility.

The September nonfarm payrolls report saw labor markets strongly surpass forecasts, raising expectations for an interest-rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting.

Our latest CIO Insights quarterly provides an update on our economic and investment outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023 and beyond.

The Bank of Japan left its negative interest rate and yield curve control parameters unchanged in light of the “extremely high uncertainties” in the growth and inflation outlook globally and in Japan.

The Federal Reserve lifted its economic projections for the year and left interest rates unchanged, but reiterated that future policy decisions will depend on economic data.

The Bank of England decided on a knife-edge vote to leave interest rates unchanged, but left the door open for further increases in the future to get inflation under control.

The German economy is faltering and there is a growing debate about the appropriate policy response, but we remain confident that the country can address its structural challenges.

China’s economic indicators for August showed signs of improvement, but market sentiment toward the country's equities could remain relatively weak.

The eurozone interest rate peak seems to have been reached – but rates will likely need to remain high for a longer period of time to get inflation under control.

U.S. inflation came in higher than expected for the month of August, but not enough for investors believe it would change the Federal Reserve's expected course of action.

Over the weekend, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda announced that Japan could soon end its decades-long negative interest rate regime.

Chinese regulators announced more supportive measures to support the property market, including reducing downpayments and lowering mortgage rates.

The August U.S. jobs report showed a combination of higher unemployment and slower wage growth, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Chinese regulators announced a slew of measures to support equities, and we expect more aggressive stimulus ahead, especially in the property market.

Our planet provides an abundance of land-based resources that we use to meet our needs, but just five key demand areas - cement, aluminium, steel, plastics, and food - account for around 37% of global CO2 emissions.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Anna Katharina Mayer, Club of Rome member and FindingSustainia co-founder, look at the complex issues around measuring sustainability – in other words, how we assess the real impact of corporate, government and individual actions on the natural world around us.

China released weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data and the country's central bank delivered earlier-than-expected interest-rate cuts.

The ratings for investment-grade corporate bonds in the U.S. and the Eurozone have developed positively recently - despite difficult economic conditions.

The Chinese government has left no doubt that it is serious about addressing the country's sluggish growth with targeted support measures, but recent economic data confirm the near-term challenges.

Slightly better-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may not increase benchmark interest rates in September.

The Reserve Bank of India paused on interest-rate increases for the third consecutive time, with statements conveying this to be a hawkish hold.

The U.S. jobs report for July showed further signs of cooling in the labor market but did not appear to alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision.

Fitch Ratings surprised markets with a downgrade for longer-term U.S. sovereign debt, pointing to the protracted negotiations around the debt ceiling and noting that “cliff-edge” resolution talks have become more frequent in recent years.

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate as expected, and the central bank's governor said that it was too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation.

Rainforests provide invaluable ecosystem services supporting climate management, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods—but they are also fragile. In this publication, we focus on four key concerns: deforestation, climate change, poaching and illegal trade, and mining and oil extraction

In the medium term we continue to favour European banks over their U.S. peers, but note that investors willing to look beyond the short-term headwinds may find interesting opportunities in the U.S.

The Bank of Japan decided to allow for more flexibility in its yield curve control. As an outlier among industrialised countries, Japan sees itself increasingly forced to tighten monetary policy.

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates and emphasised the economic slowdown in the region. Another rate hike by the end of the year is likely.

The Federal Reserve lifted interest rates and said it would focus on economic data in future policy decisions as it seeks to bring inflation down to target. Elevated labor and price data will keep the potential of further hikes “on the table”.

The Politburo meeting on Monday delivered strong high- level guidance to stimulate China’s economy, especially in consumption support and property sectors.

Japanese equities have been among the top performers this year, with the TOPIX posting a striking 20.9% return in JPY terms since the beginning of the year, and the Nikkei 225 climbing to a 33-year high. This new CIO Special on Japan looks at the factors that may have contributed to this success and future developments in the country.