CIO Perspectives Q2 2024 | Wealth Management | Deutsche Bank

PERSPECTIVES: Q1 2024 economic and asset class outlook

Published in March 2024, this edition of PERSPECTIVES provides a quarterly update of our economic and asset class views.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication "PERSPECTIVES", we outline our forecasts for the second quarter of 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

 

Macroeconomics: What kind of landing?

  • Economic growth: Strong in the U.S., subdued in Europe and Japan.
  • Overall easing inflation with some stickiness in the process.
  • Expect Fed and ECB to cut interest rates in June, Japan to end NIRP.

 

Fixed Income: Carry on!

  • “Higher for longer” theme intact as longer-end yields remain elevated.
  • Yield curve steepening should push down shorter end yields.
  • Investment Grade markets are expected to remain well bid.

 

Equities: Improving fundamentals

  • We lift our equity targets but upside from here is modest.
  • Still, certain regions and sectors offer plenty of attractive investment opportunities.
  • Earnings growth set to become the main driver of stocks again.

 

Commodities: Price risks are to the upside

  • Oil supply to track demand growth and keep oil prices around current levels.
  • Central bank buying along with pricing of rate cuts to help gold higher.
  • Green infrastructure build-up providing green shoots for industrial metals.

 

Currencies: In equilibrium

  • Synchronised cutting cycles of DM central banks to limit FX volatility.
  • Little impact of BoJ tightening on JPY as rate differentials to other DMs remain wide. 
  • Low inflation environment in China and easing PBoC to weigh on CNY. 

Download our PERSPECTIVES quarterly update

Our full investment magazine "PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook" is available to download. Please refer to the Important Notes at the end of the report for disclosures and risk warnings.

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