Weekly Investment Outlook: December 16 – The last Fed meeting of 2024

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an interest-rate cut this week, but markets may not get as many U.S. rate cuts in 2025 as they anticipate, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. "We do not expect the Fed to cut massively in 2025,” Christian says.

U.S. retail sales figures will be important to watch in the week ahead, because “It’s a very consumer-oriented economy,” Christian says. Markets will also be on alert for a read on U.S. GDP.

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Weekly Investment Outlook: December 9 – Jobs data, Fed policy, and the outlook for stocks

A somewhat mixed U.S. jobs report has boosted expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “Given the fact that the unemployment rate went up, the Fed can easily rationalise another rate cut,” Deepak says.

Historically, December has tended to be a good month for the S&P 500, and Deepak says there’s no reason that this year should be any different. “I would not be surprised if we added on a bit more from now until the year-end.”

Weekly Investment Outlook: December 2 – Climate investment: the news from COP29

COP29, this year’s iteration of the UN’s annual climate-action conference, took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, and much of the conversation was about the cost of addressing the crisis. “Let’s be blunt. The simple answer is: A lot,” says the Private Bank’s ESG CIO, Markus Müller, noting that some estimates suggest the world needs to spend 200 trillion US dollars between now and 2050.

But there were also points of optimism. "Climate finance has been very resilient in recent years," Markus says, "and in some areas we are making real progress." He also explained why it has been so important to bring developing and emerging economies into the conversation. "They are at the front line of climate change, and they are suffering the effects."

Weekly Investment Outlook: November 25 – Beyond turkey and pumpkin pie: all eyes on the US consumer

Just ahead of Thanksgiving and with the opening of the Christmas markets in some European countries, we're taking a closer look at consumption. "So far, US consumption has been really robust," says Dirk Steffen, our Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Global Chief Investment Strategist, "which is probably also due to the fact that the US labour market is still holding up."

Dirk expects relatively strong consumer activity ending the year. Aside from Black Friday, Cyber Monday and holiday shopping, activity will be further accelerated by an uptick in travel, including in other countries around the globe.

He comments on the third-quarter earnings season, saying that not only have the mega-caps and growth stocks in the US delivered good results so far but that Europe has also done relatively well in terms of earnings growth. He also discusses the activities of central banks and what possible interest rate cuts could mean for the bond markets and foreign exchange.

Weekly Investment Outlook: November 18 – The fiscal picture comes into focus

Markets have been on the rise since the U.S. election, a mood that the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, described as “euphoria” – though he said it may start to temper. “The discussion about austerity is probably gone for the time being”, and that could be inflationary and send longer-term yields higher, Christian says. “We do not expect yields to go massively lower from here.”

Meanwhile, third-quarter earnings season is mostly complete, though there are still some major names left to report. “If companies continue to deliver on the earnings, that could justify higher index levels”, Christian says. In the week ahead, he says he’ll be keeping an eye on whether U.S. services PMIs remain in growth mode.

Weekly Investment Outlook: November 11 – Post-election market jump: What’s next?

Donald Trump secured his victory in the U.S. presidential race, and stocks subsequently jumped. That is in part because of the speed at which the result became clear, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The elections were a risk event. Elections bring uncertainty, but the memory of 2020 was quite vivid in investors’ psyche”, Deepak says. “The fact that we have a result very quickly has created this relief rally.”

The Federal Reserve also delivered an interest-rate cut, and noted that inflation is now closer to its target level. “The Fed will go where the data leads us” at its next meetings, Deepak says. But markets are likely to remain attuned to the political landscape, as the Biden administration manages its last months and the new Trump administration comes into sharper focus. “The repercussions of the elections are going to be with us for some time to come.”

Weekly Investment Outlook: November 4 – Election Day, a Fed decision, and earnings roll in

The U.S. election this week sits on a knife’s edge, and it “might have significant importance for sector allocations going forward for the next few years”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “The market will price in quite a few things once we get the results.”

But politics aren’t the only matter on the agenda. The Federal Reserve will also make another decision on interest rates, and third-quarter earnings season remains in full gear. We are “coming out on the busiest week for earnings in the U.S., and the results have been quite convincing”, Dirk says. “I think the soft landing is clearly the base case.”

Weekly Investment Outlook: October 28 – Widening: spreads, fiscal deficits and BRICS

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses widening spreads in U.S. rates, China’s stimulus impact and the growing list of emerging markets joining the BRICS alliance.

Stefanie says U.S. long term rates are expected to stay higher because of market expectations that deficit spending will continue regardless of the outcome of the election and a Fed that continues with monetary easing as long as inflation allows, reflating the economy. She points to the raft of data coming this week, including the important unemployment data, PCE inflation and third quarter GDP data for a reading on growth.

For Asia, Stefanie notes Japan’s general elections and the Bank of Japan’s inflation target.  With the market eyeing China PMI and industrial data due this week, Stefanie also discusses how market participants have responded to China’s stimulus package announced on August 24.

Finally, Stefanie touches upon the latest BRICS meeting. Reportedly 13 new emerging markets, including Southeast Asia countries, are joining the BRICS trade alliance, as the major economies seek to secure commodities for the energy transition.

Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.

Weekly Investment Outlook: October 21 – Another cut from the ECB, and quarterly earnings in the U.S. and Europe

The European Central Bank has delivered interest-rate cuts at its recent consecutive meetings, but the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, says that does not necessarily mean the bank will ultimately bring down rates massively from their current levels in this cycle. “They need to also watch inflation, which we still think is sticky”, Christian says.

For now, the main topic in markets is the ongoing U.S. earnings season, Christian says. “Favorite sectors, I think no surprise, are technology and communication services, followed by health care. And energy would be expected to be the weakest sector.”

Weekly Investment Outlook: October 14 – Third-quarter earnings, bond moves, and an ECB decision

Third-quarter earnings season has kicked off in the U.S., and strong economic data from the period could mean that analysts are currently underestimating how strong the results might be, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO.

“The consensus is maybe a touch too conservative when it comes to estimating earnings growth”, Dirk says, though he also notes that with the U.S. election coming up and plenty of geopolitical unrest, earnings won’t be the only thing on investors’ minds.

In the week ahead, the big event in Europe will likely be the next policy decision from the European Central Bank, Dirk says. That’s because even though the local economy is not as strong as across the Atlantic right now, inflation remains elevated, making the ECB’s job a bit tricky.

Weekly Investment Outlook: October 7 – Fed boosts Asia

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses how the Fed rate cut and expectations on its rate cut cycle has been a game changer for Emerging Asia central banks and assets.

Stefanie discusses China’s potentially largest ever stimulus package, equivalent to 7 trillion Renminbi and up to around 6% of China’s GDP this year. Stefanie argues that China’s new forward guidance is a positive for helping to stabilise markets and win back investor confidence. The CIO also believes the Chinese equities rally still has legs to run in the short term, while she says the jury is still out for the medium to long term. 

In addition to U.S. CPI and employment data, Stefanie discusses risk and volatility around the escalation in Middle East tensions and how gold continues to be a good diversifier in portfolios.

As Japan faces early elections, the market is digesting new leadership comments as to how that could affect the Bank of Japan’s decision-making, from hawk to dove, which is impacting the Yen and carry trade.

Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.

Weekly Investment Outlook: September 30 – VP debate, stimulus in China, and the U.S. jobs report

The candidates for vice president in the upcoming U.S. presidential election are set to debate this week, in what may well be the last debate before election day. The event is not likely to shift investor sentiment, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. But he adds a caveat: “It shouldn't be a market moving event unless there are some policy decisions, or policy rhetoric, that comes out of either candidate that could have an impact on certain sectors of the economy”, Deepak says.

The monthly U.S. jobs report is likely to get a lot of attention at the end of the week, as “you can see that the focus is shifting from inflation data to labour market data”, Deepak says. He is also keeping an eye on Chinese markets after the government’s stimulus measures, and says that he will be watching for U.S. indicators on manufacturing and services activity.

Weekly Investment Outlook: September 23 – Life after 50 bps

Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Chief Investment Strategist, outlines what the Fed's recent interest rate cut means for upcoming central bank actions and economic developments.

He argues that recent data points, including relatively low initial jobless claims and robust retail sales, had pointed more towards a 25 bps cut. While the bigger cut by 50 bps was arguably not necessary, it is certainly helping to prevent a recession and facilitates a soft landing.

In the months to come, Dirk expects volatility as a result of the upcoming US elections and incoming macro data. In terms of equities "we keep building our barbell strategy with mega large caps on the one side and small caps on the other."

Weekly Investment Outlook: September 16 – Fed watch: how deep will it cut?

Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.”

And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be paying increasing attention to the U.S. elections over the coming weeks, as well as the coming corporate earnings season. “In this environment we will see frequent ‘rotations’ back and forth”, Dirk says, as some interested market participants wait on the sidelines to buy the dips in certain sectors.

Weekly Investment Outlook: September 9 – An important jobs report, and the return of volatility

Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction."

Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but investors are also likely to be tuned in to the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The race, Christian says, is "so close at this point in time, I think even the slightest mistake in a TV debate could have significant implications."

Weekly Investment Outlook: September 2 – Earnings expectations, and an important jobs report

Summer is nearly over, and with 2nd quarter earnings reports wrapped up, investors are now setting their expectations for corporate results from the 3rd quarter, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “We have this time where investors are asking what's next”, Dirk says, noting that “We think it will, again, be a quite supportive earnings season.”

Key data reports this week will shed light on the U.S. labour market. “It's not only payroll Friday, it's the JOLTS report” of turnover in the labour market, Dirk says. Recent downward revisions to jobs growth from earlier in the year will likely have markets particularly attuned, especially as it will be the last monthly report before the Federal Reserve makes its next decision on interest rates.

Weekly Investment Outlook: August 26 – The Fed’s next move, the U.S. election, and news from the AI sector

Following the Jackson Hole conference of central bankers last week, as well as the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, investors are now focused on next month’s policy decision – which could include an interest-rate cut.

“It’s the rates market that is pretty much dictating how the risky assets do,” says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, in this week’s podcast. “Some of the recent data has been quite noisy and, when you start looking into that, it makes a lot of sense for the Fed to start cutting rates."

He also notes that markets are starting to pay more attention to U.S. politics, and that this may have played a role in recent volatility. In the week ahead, key reports to watch will include durable goods orders, earnings guidance from a major name in artificial intelligence, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at the end of the week.

Weekly Investment Outlook: August 19 – Price pressures, economic growth, and Jackson Hole

This week's Jackson Hole conference will be in focus for investors because "we can discuss what central bankers have in store," says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He also says that while markets have shown some signs of calming after a bout of sharp moves, he expects volatility could remain a factor for some time.

"There are of course important things happening in the eurozone as well," he adds, pointing to some hesitancy at the European Central Bank to aggressively cut interest rates amid "abundant" price risks. Data on inflation and negotiated wages there could have an impact on expectations for policy decisions to come.

Weekly Investment Outlook: August 12 – What to watch after a week of big market moves

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, explains what investors should be watching for after a recent stretch of volatility in markets.

“Volatility has come down a little bit, which I think is positive”, Christian says, while noting that some of the key considerations remain: the strength of the global economy, the ongoing corporate earnings season, and the direction of central-bank policy.

Christian says this week’s U.S. inflation figures will be “very important, because the Fed ultimately needs to look at inflation, what’s the development there.” But he also said that geopolitical risks are on investors’ minds, and that a possible escalation in the Middle East could bring volatility back up. “That is a very important thing to watch.”

Weekly Investment Outlook: August 5, 2024 – China and Japan: on different paths

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses the Federal Reserve’s pivot for a rate cut this year, and data points leading to September. 

For Japan, Stefanie says the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed its second rate hike for this year (up from 0-0.1% to 0.25%), and also announced quantitative easing. All eyes are now on next week’s wage data, which will test repriced assumptions for BoJ’s next steps.

Australia and India’s central banks are due to meet this week, and the CIO expects the RBA and RBI to hold steady this month.

In China, recent data disappointments have shown continued weakness so this week’s important trade and inflation data will be even more closely monitored. Stefanie also discussed the outcome of China’s Third Plenum which committed to long term structural changes, but continues to link these to its short-term goal of achieving 5% growth this year. For instance, by launching a 300bn RMB extended programme to encourage domestic investor trading in consumables.

Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.