Investing insights

The latest quarterly update of our views includes 2025 and 2026 forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, along with 12-month targets for key policy rates and markets.

This is the latest edition of our PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook. It provides a summary update of our economic and asset class views following our quarterly CIO Day.

In the third issue of our quarterly publication PERSPECTIVES, we provide an update on our economic and investment outlook for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

In the second issue of our quarterly publication PERSPECTIVES, we provide an update on our economic and investment outlook for the third quarter of 2024 and beyond.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced his decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China. The reciprocal tariffs, which were announced a week prior, were set to take effect on April 9th and targeted a broad range of trading partners.

The U.S. administration has now announced the details of its “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners. In this CIO Perspectives Memo, “Liberation Day” rattles markets, we discuss how they will work, what could happen next and the implications for economies, financial markets and investors.

Long term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) form a vital component of systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. This report highlights significant developments to our 10-year (i.e. 2025-2034) asset class return assumptions since the last review, and the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, amongst other factors. It presents LTCMA for selected sub-asset class indices within equities, fixed income and commodities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX: Paradigm shift in the currencies markets – we examine the factors influencing the development of exchange rates in the next twelve months and present our corresponding forecasts.

These changes should accelerate Europe’s path to decarbonization, reinforcing the EU’s leadership in climate policy. Industries will need to adapt to tighter regulations, while investors navigate an evolving carbon market with new risks and opportunities. The coming years could shape the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility, potentially setting a precedent for future carbon pricing mechanisms worldwide.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint, we look at joint financing options and possible growth effects of increased defence spending, as well as special features within the European defence industry and their relevance for investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we investigate the structural drivers of healthcare along with the recent developments and main opportunities in the sector. We also provide a market outlook focused on earnings prospects, valuation, and potential cyclical tailwinds.

Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer for the Private Bank, discusses his predictions for Sunday's German federal elections, the possible outcomes and the implications for investors under different scenarios, with Nico Nonnenmacher, the Private Bank's Head of Communications.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at both the prospects for tariffs implementation and their possible impact on U.S. and European equities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we will look for how any potential end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact financial markets.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Naoko Ishii, Executive Vice President of the University of Tokyo and Director of the Center for Global Commons, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discuss putting nature on the balance sheet and how to build a coordinated financial response to this global challenge.

On January 20, DeepSeek, an AI spin-off from a local Chinese hedge fund, launched a free AI assistant app. By yesterday, it had overtaken other well-known AI assistants in the number of smartphone app downloads. With its growing traction, the underlying details of its development gained attention as well.