Despite bleak market sentiment and short-term volatility, our positive medium- and long-term outlook remains unchanged. Over the next 12 months, we believe that positive market factors, including extended or additional tax relief and deregulation in the U.S., as well as fiscal stimulus in Europe, should prevail.
Download our latest quarterly update at the link below to read more on the following topics:
Macroeconomics: Confrontational competition
- Growth: U.S. exceptionalism moderating – Europe's awakening
- Inflation: Not conclusively beaten yet
- Central banks: Restrained easing versus dominant fiscal stimulus
Fixed Income: A new equilibrium for Bunds
- Soft patch in the U.S. is masking the upward pressure on yields
- A new equilibrium for Bunds as fiscal levers are loosened
- Not only carry but also the high quality of Investment Grade will keep it well bid
Equities: Volatility is back
- U.S. stocks to move higher, but with increased volatility
- European stocks remain attractively valued
- DeepSeek brought Chinese stocks back into the limelight
Commodities: Gold outshining its peers
- Gold bolstered by trade conflicts and rising inflation expectations
- Copper has benefited from frontloading and could suffer from tariffs
- Oil markets heading for a supply surplus – barring delivery bottlenecks
Currencies: USD rally halted
- U.S. dollar suffering due to tariff policy and economic concerns
- Euro benefiting from planned fiscal stimulus
- Yen being supported by expected further rate hikes
