The world’s largest democracy goes to its quinquennial national polls in a few weeks, with results expected by the end of May. Almost one billion registered voters will make this the biggest election exercise anywhere, ever.

Two-thirds of this voter base has been turning out to vote in the past few elections – over 600 million citizens - which is larger than the entire populations of North America or the European Union. Needless to say, it is a monumental undertaking in terms of logistics, administration, and security, necessitating polling in 4-5 phases.

 

In this CIO Special, we analyse the polity and the demographic changes that are affecting polling trends, look at economic and social issues that are at the forefront of voters’ minds and examine how markets have behaved in election years, both before and after election day.

 

Key takeaways:

  • India's national elections to be held in April/May will be the world's largest democratic exercise ever.
  • A large number of young first time voters and women, both with better and cheaper access to the internet and social media, are playing an increasingly influential role in determining the winner.
  • While economic prosperity has been on the rise and markets assume that the ruling BJP will remain in power, volatility after the election results are announced cannot be ruled out.

 

'

The CIO Special below is available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the memo for disclosures and risk warnings.

PDF

Language:

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

The content and materials on this website may be considered Marketing Material. The market price of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested.  >The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.

 

Related special reports

See more

×