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In a context of weaker global and euro area activity, the Spanish economy has shown remarkable resilience during 2023, but the latest indicators point to a slowdown. A complex political environment will make it more difficult to address some important challenges, including fiscal consolidation, as detailed in our full report below.

Here are some of our key takeaways: 

  • The Spanish economy will close 2023 with growth close to 2.5%, thanks to the strength of domestic demand, especially during the first half of the year.
  • The indicators available for the last months of 2023 point to a marked slowdown, due to the cumulative impact on domestic demand of the rise in interest rates and the weakness of our external partners. The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2024.
  • 2024 will bring a return to European fiscal rules, in a complex political environment, where the support of regional parties for the government will be key. Despite this, we expect the Spanish risk premia to remain stable at around current levels.

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The CIO Special below is available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the memo for disclosures and risk warnings.

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No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

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Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

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