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This new CIO Special assesses the latest developments in economic activity in Spain and the prospects for 2023. Our view is that the economy will decelerate further during the first half of 2023 due to the combination of higher interest rates, rising inflation and lower growth of its European partners.

 

However, the Spanish economy faces this new recession in a much better state than during the financial crisis. Private sector debt has been reduced considerably, and unlike in the previous crisis, there will be strong fiscal support. The main areas covered by the report are:

 

  • A review of economic data during 2022 and forecasts for 2023, which we expect to be a mild recession year.
  • The impact of rising interest rates on the real estate sector and the economy as a whole.
  • Investment implications considering that 2023 will be an election year, with the risk of increased fiscal spending, which may put pressure on Spanish assets.

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Our CIO Special is now available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the report for disclosures and risk warnings.

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No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

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Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

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