Facebook LinkedIn

Our new CIO Special finds that although a price recovery could start in 2023, markets are likely to remain choppy in the short term until the economy bottoms out and there is more clarity regarding the duration of the Fed's rate hike cycle.

We also observe that:

  • Aggregate corporate earnings in the S&P 500 may have shrunk by 2.2% in Q4 2022 due to declining margins.

  • Raw materials and basic materials, communications services and consumer cyclicals are likely to post significant earnings growth declines; only energy and industrials should post significant growth.

  • The environment for US equities remains difficult due to slowing economic activity, rising interest rates and overconfident earnings expectations. 

Download our full report

Our CIO Special is now available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the report for disclosures and risk warnings.

PDF

Language:

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S.

The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

This web page is not an offer to buy a security or enter into any transaction. The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.

Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

Related special reports

CIO week upfront podcast

CIO Podcast

Weekly Investment Outlook: December 16 – The last Fed meeting of 2024

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an interest-rate cut this week, but markets may not get as many U.S. rate cuts in 2025 as they anticipate, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. "We do not expect the Fed to cut massively in 2025,” Christian says. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an interest-rate cut this week, but markets may not get as many U.S. rate cuts in 2025 as they anticipate, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. "We do not expect the Fed to cut massively in 2025,” Christian says. U.S. retail sales figures will be important to watch in the week ahead, because “It’s a very consumer-oriented economy,” Christian says. Markets will also be on alert for a read on U.S. GDP.

Dec 16, 2024

CIO Special | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Special report

China: fiscal stimulus –one step at a time

In this CIO Special report, we discuss details of the fiscal package announced by the National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee meeting and provide an update on the macroeconomic performance of the Chinese economy.

Nov 11, 2024

us elections desktop

Video briefing

CIO Video: U.S. post-election update

Our Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, provides an initial assessment of the U.S. election results and their market implications.

Nov 06, 2024

U.S. Election: America goes to the polls

CIO Special report

U.S. Election: America goes to the polls

As we inch closer to the U.S. presidential election, our new CIO Special explores the current state of the political landscape, key issues and policies that continue to shape the narrative for the race and its potential impact on a range of sectors for equity investors.

Sep 27, 2024

Decarbonizing portfolios: 10 key factors

CIO Special report

Decarbonizing portfolios: 10 key factors

Portfolio decarbonization will become an increasingly important topic. Investors need to understand the key issues involved.

Aug 23, 2024

Circular materials use

CIO Special report

Circular materials use: the need for change

In this CIO Special report we examine what’s driving Earth Overshoot Day and where innovation is offering hope for our planet's future.

Jul 31, 2024

See more