In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe Middle East and Africa, Dirk Steffen, discusses the upcoming divergence between the Eurozone and the US rate cycles. The odds are that US rates will likely be higher for a bit longer, in contrast to the European Central Bank which will likely cut once more than the Fed.
Dirk also discusses US and European equities reporting season, where he argues fundamentals are firm to positive.
In the week ahead China will report GDP data and with strong trade relations with Germany, Dirk describes improving China data as offering the potential for ‘global healing’.
Tune in as Dirk takes us through key considerations for asset classes in the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: April 8, 2024 – American Exceptionalism
Deepak Puri, our Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, recaps the first quarter, highlighting resilient U.S. economic growth metrics, reinforced by the latest nonfarm payrolls count. He also touches on the strong equity market performance as the S&P 500 posted the 11th best first-quarter performance since 1950.
Looking ahead, Deepak talks us through his expectations for this week's ECB meeting, the kick-off of the earnings season, and U.S. CPI inflation data. Commenting on the relevance for future central bank actions, he mentions that the CPI is "probably the most important for the market, because it has such a large impact on the reassessment of the Fed's rate cuts". Tune in to find out what other signals Deepak is looking for in anticipation of a first interest rate cut.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: March 25, 2024 – Here come the doves
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, weighs in on a couple of central-bank surprises: one in the United States, that "the markets really took as a dovish sign", and another in Switzerland, where an earlier-than-expected move to cut rates put it out of step with the European Central Bank. "The initial reaction has been in the currency markets," she said.
Japan was also in the spotlight after it ended its long experiment with negative interest rates, and "the equities market continued to rise." In China, key economic data are expected in the week to come – and also in the U.S., where there will be an update on the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: March 18, 2024 – (Un)eventful week ahead?
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Global Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting looks ahead to next week’s agenda, which is packed with various central bank meetings.
While interest rate changes may not be on the radar for the majority, according to Christian, "the Bank of Japan is quite interesting… and the closest to making a change".
Christian also shares a glimpse into the main areas of discussion during our latest CIO day, as well as his key takeaways from recent client events. While inflation is still a hot topic for investors, political events, including elections, are beginning to play a dominant role in the discussion. Tune in to hear Christian's advice on factoring macro events into portfolios.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: March 11, 2024 – No landing at all?
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist and CIO for EMEA, Dirk Steffen, comments on the latest ECB meeting, where the central bank’s language pointed to a potential rate cut in June.
Turning to the US, where growth is stronger, Dirk reflects on the latest jobs report which he describes as “encouraging and constructive for markets” and data hinting at the possibility of “no landing at all”.
For this week, inflation remains high on the agenda with US inflation, consumer sentiment and retail data due this week. Also, interesting to watch are the wage negotiations, set to take place in Japan, which may provide a hint of the Bank of Japan’s next move.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: March 4, 2024 – Super week ahead?
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri, reflects on what has been a strong start to the year for US equities and elaborates on the drivers behind it. Furthermore, Deepak comments on the latest PCE results and how they could affect interest rates cuts on the horizon.
Looking ahead, Deepak foresees a very busy week for the US – both from an economic and political perspective – tune in to learn what is on the agenda for this week!
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Weekly Investment Outlook: February 26, 2024 – Japan: Uncharted territory
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses what’s driving the Nikkei to new highs. She says structural reform in Japan, a positive outlook for wage growth and Yen weakness benefitting export sectors are providing investor optimism.
Holtze-Jen also discusses the first week of market trading in China after the Lunar New Year holidays, where there may be some glimmer of green shoots.
She also points investors to watch for significant upcoming data in the US and Eurozone, which will have implications for central bank policy decisions.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: February 19, 2024 – The landing debate
In this episode of the Weekly Investment Outlook Podcast, Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer for EMEA, outlines the current landing debate after US inflation numbers came in firmer than expected.
Dirk said that "discussions have ranged from a possible severe recession some time ago to a soft landing in recent months. But today, we are discussing a scenario that could mean no landing at all.”
Dirk also shares his take on the UK and Japan entering a technical recession in Q4 2023, elaborates on very encouraging statistics from Chinese consumers during Lunar New Year and discusses the strong earnings season of the augmented tech sector.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: February 12, 2024 – Wanted: Growth
In our latest CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, reflects on a positive week for corporate earnings and U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high.
For the week up front, he’ll be keeping a close eye on inflation – especially the latest U.S. CPI reading – as well as further earnings releases. He also shares the questions and topics that are at the forefront of our clients’ minds, having spent the last few weeks on the road talking to clients about his outlook for 2024.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: February 5, 2024 – More jobs, no early cuts
In this episode of the CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Dirk Steffen, Global Chief Investment Strategist and CIO EMEA talks about earnings with a focus on the Magnificent Seven and highlights that investments related to AI have shown to be validated across several earnings seasons.
At the same time, the first U.S. jobs report for 2024 showed that significantly more new jobs were created in January than expected. Dirk said that “the bond market has started to price this in and the likelihood of an early cut in March is now almost negligible."
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Weekly Investment Outlook: January 29, 2024 – Fed: Finding the sweet spot
This week's CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast is all about what's moving markets in the U.S. Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, joins us to talk Fed meeting expectations, earnings and data releases next week, and provides insight into what's on the radar for 2024, including elections.
Although a rate cut next week is highly unlikely, Deepak mentioned that "there will be a lot of scrutiny on the statement itself and the press conference". With a focus on monetary policy, he highlighted the difficulty of finding the sweet spot, as: "If the Fed starts cutting rates too soon, it can stoke inflation, if they delay cutting rates, you're increasing the odds of a recession."
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Weekly Investment Outlook: January 22, 2024 – Data speaks louder than words
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, highlights her recent discussions with clients regarding the upcoming elections over the course of 2024 and the implications for geopolitical risk as well as markets' expectations regarding future rate cuts. For Asia specifically, Stefanie touches upon our outlook for the major economies in the region; China, Japan and India and their impact on markets.
Stefanie will be looking closely at the U.S. December core PCE data this week, a core indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions as well as the first reading for U.S. Q4 GDP. She’s keen to see if the data continues to support the ‘soft landing’ narrative and recent price action regarding rates.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: January 15, 2024 – All eyes on earnings
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist and CIO for EMEA, Dirk Steffen, reflects on an eventful week with Q4 earnings season kicking off.
Commenting on the latest U.S. CPI data, Dirk says that “after a short nervous reaction, markets stabilised quickly” and investors’ expectations on rate cuts remained largely unchanged. Turning to APAC, Dirk comments on the latest rally in Japanese equities and elaborates on the underlying fundamental trends.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the World Economic Forum, where some central bank representatives will participate and many mega trends, such as AI, will be discussed. Turning to markets, Q4 company earnings will remain in focus as well as China releasing several important economic data points.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: January 8, 2024 – 2024 Predictions: Reality check
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting shares his views of the biggest themes to shape investment markets this year.
Christian described the first week of trading as a “reality check” compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, and said the correcting markets is “positive and more realistic” for investors.
2024 is also tipped to be the biggest election year in history, with more than 4 billion people going to the polls across 70 countries.
Amid continued volatility, Christian believes there will be investment opportunities in sectors and countries, even as geopolitics and regional conflicts continue to weigh on outlook.
Tune in and listen to Christian’s thoughts for 2024, and the week ahead.
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