Europe’s economic growth has deteriorated over the course of this year. A challenging external environment and domestic problems have weighed on exports and fixed investments.

In this CIO Special – Europe: weak growth and its investment implications – we assess underlying economic trends and potential policy support.


  • Eurozone monetary policy is likely to remain ultra-loose, but hopes for a massive fiscal boost seem overdone. 
  • Weak European GDP growth is characterized by divergent dynamics in the export-oriented manufacturing sector and the more resilient services sector. We expect growth to remain weak, but do not expect a recession.
  • Germany’s export-oriented economy has underperformed, while more service oriented economies such as Spain and (to some extent) France are holding up better. Politics poses additional headwinds for UK and Italian growth.
  • We remain cautious on European equities due to sluggish earnings growth. On the fixed income side, we like EUR crossover as the ECB’s loose monetary policy strengthens the “hunt for yield” environment.

To download a PDF of the full report, please click here.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not thecase in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The content and materials on this website may be considered Marketing Material. The market price of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested.  The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.