Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management
Mar. 19, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak a high human cost and no end is yet in sight. Meanwhile, financial markets are unnerved because there is no policy action or statement that can provide a convincing backstop to the current crisis. We remain in highly uncertain times.

Our new special report argues that any prediction of future market and economic trends should be based on the recognition that this remains essentially a public health crisis. A sustained recovery in markets and economies will be possible only when the pandemic is contained. Monetary and fiscal policy cannot fix this problem on their own.

 

Nonetheless, the vast amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus now being pumped into the markets represents a sea-change in approach that will eventually yield results, once COVID-19 is on the back foot. Our report considers what the global economic and market situation could look like over short, medium and long-term investment horizons.

 

As regards the economic outlook, a full V-shaped economic recovery is highly unlikely. What is more probable is a fairly rapid initial partial recovery followed by a period of more modest growth – the cost of recent events and the policy response could he high.

 

We expect markets to remain volatile for some time but investors should remember that markets tend to anticipate the stabilisation of an uncertain situation – and then react quickly. So it remains sensible to think ahead in a disciplined way on investment strategy and how to prepare for the different world ahead.

 

To download a PDF of the full report, please click here.

 

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