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With less than a week to go until the UK general election on December 12, 2019 we discuss the possible outcomes and their implications in this CIO Special – Brexit: Waiting for the election outcome.

  • We currently put the indicative probability of a clear Conservative majority at 75%, a hung parliament at 20% and a clear Labour majority at 5%.
  • In the case of a clear Conservative victory, we would expect UK economic momentum to improve over the short term. The scene would be set for an orderly Brexit – although the final shape of Brexit would still be unclear.
  • Markets have already been pricing in a Conservative victory, but a further rally in UK-based stocks and GBP looks likely if Johnson wins.
     

To download a PDF of the full report, please click here.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not thecase in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as riseand you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

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