With less than a week to go until the UK general election on December 12, 2019 we discuss the possible outcomes and their implications in this CIO Special – Brexit: Waiting for the election outcome.

  • We currently put the indicative probability of a clear Conservative majority at 75%, a hung parliament at 20% and a clear Labour majority at 5%.
  • In the case of a clear Conservative victory, we would expect UK economic momentum to improve over the short term. The scene would be set for an orderly Brexit – although the final shape of Brexit would still be unclear.
  • Markets have already been pricing in a Conservative victory, but a further rally in UK-based stocks and GBP looks likely if Johnson wins.
     

To download a PDF of the full report, please click here.

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