Economic and market outlook

Gain expert perspective on the potential risks and opportunities ahead in the latest economic outlook published by our global Chief Investment Office (CIO).

Our latest reports

CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

Japan: the start of positive interest rates

In a landmark event, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and yield curve control, though monetary policies remain accommodative.

Mar. 19, 2024


CIO Insights Outlook Update Q2 2024 | Wealth Management

CIO Insights quarterly report

CIO PERSPECTIVES: Q2 2024 Update

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

Mar. 18, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

U.K. economy: on the way out of recession

The U.K. economy started the new year with moderate growth, and the rebound should give the Bank of England the cover it needs to stick to its wait-and-see approach. That could sustain the British pound's relative strength in the near term.

Mar. 13, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

Japan: when will the BoJ pivot?

Wage hikes by some leading manufacturers have set the tone for industry-wide pay rises. Japanese authorities are closely watching industry pay revisions as they expect it to trigger a “virtuous cycle of growth”. However, BoJ Governor Ueda recently played down the state of the Japanese economy, given mixed data signals.

Mar. 13, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

U.S. CPI: Patience is key

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annualised increase of +3.2% year-on-year (YoY), moving higher from last month’s reading. On a month-on-month basis (MoM) Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, remained at +0.4%.

Mar. 12, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

Nonfarm payrolls: Mixed report strengthens case for June cut

The latest Nonfarm payrolls report delivered higher-than-expected jobs figures for the month of February, with significant downward revisions also seen for the previous two months.

Mar. 08, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

ECB hints at interest rate reversal in June

The prospect of an imminent turnaround in interest rates should continue to provide the equity markets with a slight tailwind.

Mar. 07, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

U.S. CPI: Taking a detour

Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures will reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to a potential interest-rate cut in the near future.

Feb. 13, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

Nonfarm payrolls: Kicking the cut down the road

The U.S. jobs report for January showed the labour market on a stronger footing than forecast. That could mean that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest-rate cuts for longer than had recently been expected.

Feb. 02, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

India: Interim budget targets strong fiscal improvement

A budget focused on strong fiscal consolidation unsurprisingly gave support to fixed income markets.

Feb. 01, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

BoE on hold as it’s "not there yet"

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, but it also softened its language, dropping a warning about the potential for further policy tightening should inflationary pressures re-emerge.

Feb. 01, 2024


CIO Memo | Deutsche Bank Wealth Management

CIO Memo

U.S. FOMC: Looking for confidence

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signalled that it is yet to be fully convinced that a rate cut is imminent.

Jan. 30, 2024



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