There is a risk, in a time of prolonged economic uncertainty, that you become blinded to the pitfalls ahead. U.S./China trade tensions have now been ramping up for over a year, and other geopolitical tensions for even longer (Brexit for over three). But while we have suffered bouts of volatility, markets have not fallen into a more prolonged period of gloom.
To a great extent, this has been due to continued efforts of central banks, with the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan recently loosening policy in anticipation of further economic weakness. As a result, economic growth and ﬁnancial markets have been supported, even though these are not the primary goals of central banks.
Even though times have changed since the beginning of the year, we still feel comfortable with the six themes that we highlighted in January.