Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer

Oct. 24, 2018

In our quarterly CIO Insights publication for Q4 2018 we look at how the investment landscape is likely to evolve, against a background of continued economic growth but sustained uncertainty around China, Europe and elsewhere. We still think that it makes sense to stay invested, but hedge, with market volatility creating opportunities as well as risks. Over the longer term, we consider what a new structural cycle – the “new techonomy” – will mean for the next phase of global economic management.

The publication includes an update on our 10 Themes for 2018, assessing each one in the light of recent developments, before a look at the outlook for the global economy. An overview of our multi asset investment position and likely multi asset trends is followed by a more detailed description of our equities, fixed income and FX views. We also present our updated economic and market forecasts.

The following regional editions of the full report are available for download: 

CIO Insights - Markets on the move: riding the road ahead - EMEA (EN)

 

CIO Insights - Markets on the move: riding the road ahead - Americas (EN)

 

CIO Insights - Markets on the move: riding the road ahead - APAC (EN)

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. CIO Office, Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, Deutsche Bank AG - Email: WM.CIO-Office@db.com.

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Theme 1 – Policy pressures need prudent response

Economic slowdown worries have encouraged central banks to loosen monetary policy again, but many factors that are hurting growth are non-monetary in nature. Even though the effectiveness of monetary policy is nearing its limits, and calls for fiscal stimulus will be more vocal, we don’t anticipate a massive fiscal boost. Political developments will also continue to have an impact on markets.

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Theme 2 – Living with a low yields world

With a continuing policy reliance on monetary “magic”, current financial repression in the form of negative (real) bond yields will continue for some time. Many central banks now own high shares of their countries’ overall debt (in the case of the Bank of Japan, 45%) and winding these holdings down will take time – if it happens at all.

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Theme 6 – Tech meets ESG

Our long-term investment themes, now in their fourth year, target structural, long-term changes in the economic environment. They include Cybersecurity, Millennials and Healthcare (launched in 2017); Infrastructure, Smart Mobility and Artificial Intelligence (launched in 2018); ESG (environmental, social and governance) Investing and Enhanced Infrastructure (launched in 2019). For 2020, we launch two new long-term themes: 5G Fast Forward and Resource Stewardship.

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The end of monetary magic?

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Theme 5 – Politics tops policy

Politicians’ actions are likely to prove particularly important to foreign exchange (FX) rates in 2020, and commodities will feel the consequences too.

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Theme 4 – Balance your style

Equity valuations are stretched going into 2020 and the perceived lack of alternatives will not be enough, on its own, to drive valuations much higher from here. But modest single-digit corporate earnings growth should provide some support and further gains in equities indices look likely.

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Theme 3 – Find new income harbours

The current environment of low or negative (real) yields is likely to continue in parts of the corporate space as well as developed market government bonds. Investors may need to look for income elsewhere, and acceptance of risk will be a prerequisite for positive absolute performance.

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Brexit: Waiting for the election outcome

With less than a week to go until the UK general election on December 12, 2019 we discuss the possible outcomes and their implications in this CIO Special.

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